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Academics See No Clear Exit for Johnson or Replacement PM_我的网站

A |     British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is fighting for his political life but his opponents have few options for replacing him — so say two senior academics.,Calls for Johnson to go have reached fever pitch since Chris Pincher, the Conservative MP he appointed as deputy chief whip in February, was sacked for drunkenly groping two men at a posh private members' club in London.,This week it emerged that Johnson had been informed of earlier sexual assault claims against Pincher before he promoted him — leaving cabinet colleagues were embarrassed at having to defend the ever-changing official line.,Laura McAllister, professor of public policy at the Wales Governance Centre, told Sputnik nobody should take Johnson's political demise for granted.,"He survived so much in a way that few other politicians have ever managed to, particularly those in senior public office and prime minister," McAllister says. "He operates by a completely different set of rules and principles and ethics, which we would assume would be his undoing, but actually in reality he seems to have been able to ride the storm".,The academic points to Johnson's survival of the scandals around his advisor Dominic Cummings, 'Partygate', his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic before the Pincher affair. But she conceded that the spate of ministerial resignations led by Sajid Javid as health secretary and Rishi Sunak as chancellor of the exchequer were "hugely significant.","Two Cabinet members who sat in Cabinet yesterday morning had resigned without warning by the evening," the professor stresses "I think it's also fair to say that both of those individuals are thinking about their own potential bids to stand as the next leader of the Conservative Party and therefore timing is very much predicated on that.",McAllister says things have changed since the days of Margaret Thatcher, who resigned in 1990 after failing to win a leadership challenge by an overwhelming margin.,"[T]here was a much stronger Cabinet code, a ministerial code that was upheld broadly, or if it wasn't upheld, then there were consequences," she says "That's not the case now, and it seems very likely that Johnson will not resign of his own accord.","He still has a base of support, of course, even though that’s dwindling away now," she adds.,The academic also doubts that a general election would break the political deadlock.,"Whilst Labour are a few percentage points ahead, they clearly aren’t making sufficient headway to be confident of winning a majority," McAllister says. "The best they could hope for in the current polling would be a minority government and potentially having to seek coalition partners".,Those could include the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party (SNP), who would demand a repeat of the 2014 independence referendum as the price of their support. Ironically, independence for Scotland and its 59 parliamentary seats would shore up the Conservative majority in Westminster and make Labour nigh on unelectable.,"[Labour leader] Keir Starmer has already ruled out any deals with the SNP for obvious constitutional reasons, and therefore with Plaid Cymru in Wales," she points out, "So it seems unlikely that that route to power is open".,McAllister believes a new Tory leader would at least enjoy a "honeymoon period" bounce in the polls.,"And who knows, were Johnson to be defenestrated, it might be that a new leader might choose to capitalize on the honeymoon period and call an earlier election," she speculates.,Beleaguered BoJo Battles With Opposition at Weekly PM's Questions12:52 GMT,No 'Coup', But Then Who?,Mark Garnett, a politics professor at Lancaster University and author of the books "The British Prime Minister in an Age of Upheaval" and "From Anger to Apathy: The British Experience" thinks Johnson has no hope of survival. But he does not see how the party can push the PM out if he refuses to jump.,He says Javid and Sunak's resignations are "serious blows" to Johnson, but they are only "symptoms of a more general crisis of leadership".,"Johnson has been involved in too many incidents which raise questions about his personal integrity," Garnett says, with ministers told to defend the PM against allegations that turned out to be true. "In effect, they have been asked to lie in public on his behalf. Their patience has finally snapped.",But the professor does not see the near simultaneous resignations as a "coup", stressing: "The most surprising thing is that ministers have tolerated Johnson for so long".,While Sunak was seen as the favorite to succeed Johnson just six months ago "he is being held at least partly responsible for the country's economic problems and his chances of becoming prime minister are now very remote," Garnett says. "Sajid Javid's chances are greater, but Conservative members (who make the final decision) seem more attracted to the Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, who has not resigned.",The academic believes MPs are worried that Johnson is now an "electoral liability" who could cost them their seats at the next general election. "The party has just lost two by-elections in crucial seats, and the main reason given by those who voted against them was Boris Johnson's leadership," he stresses.,But the problem of how to remove Johnson from office if he will not quit remains.,"Currently the party's rules make it impossible to hold a vote of confidence for another year," Garnett points out. "It is very likely that those rules will be changed within the next ten days". But he believes if a vote could be held now, "Johnson would certainly lose and be forced to resign".。    AI摘要      福建海事局启动防台风二级应急响应，重点防御宁德、福州等地。沿海22条客渡运航线停运，水上施工停工。福州辖区涉江海及内河游航线全面停航，游艇回港避风，全力防范台风影响。         记者获悉，为了防范大风暴雨天气，做好防抗台风工作，福建海事局于8月25日14时启动防台风二级应急响应，以宁德、福州、平潭、莆田为核心防御重点。目前，福州市内河游及涉江、海的12条客渡运航线已停航。

B |     近日，福建海事局对客渡运航线、海上施工作业项目等陆续实施“关停撤转”措施。截至25日12时，福建沿海共有22条客渡运航线停运，44艘客渡船停航，41个水上施工作业项目停工，116艘施工作业船舶撤离，全省沿海船舶拖带、试航、科考、风电运维等活动已停止。

C |     记者从福州海事局获悉，福州辖区涉江、海的12条客渡运航线已全面停航，37艘游艇全部回港避风，辖区内19个水工项目已全部停工。

D |     另外，为防范可能出现的大风、暴雨等恶劣天气，西湖—白马河航线、西湖航线（环湖航线、自驾船）、晋安河航线、凤坂河航线、晋安湖航线（环湖航线、自驾船、卡丁船）、瀛洲河航线、光明港—南公河口航线、三捷河自驾航线、流花溪自驾航线等内河游航线也已于25日停航，复航时间将另行通知。

E | （记者 李锦清 通讯员 黄泽霖）。

F |

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